Morgan Stanley Research / US Sports Betting: A Good Super Bow

A number of state regulators reported Super Bowl betting volumes and revenue today. While we expected trends to be strong based on our analysis of GeoComply data highlighting NJ/PA could be up >70%, the results were even better than expected, further supporting our bullish call on US sports betting and DKNG.

NJ betting volumes were $117m, up ~115% y/y, with revenue of $11.3m implying 9.6% hold, well above “normal” 7%. PA volumes increased 74% y/y to $54m, with $9.4m of revenue implying 17.5% hold. IL volumes were $46m, with a 17% hold rate, and IA handle grew to $16.2m from $6.5m in 2020.

Even NV’s volumes were decent, down just 12% from the 2020 Super Bowl despite the pandemic keeping many visitors away from Las Vegas (where visitation was down 64% in Dec).

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