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The confetti hadn’t finished falling on Levi’s Stadium turf when Las Vegas lit up. Somewhere on the sportsbook floors, sharp bettors were quietly cashing Seattle tickets as long as +6600 — printed back in July when nobody believed in the Seahawks and the books were laughing all the way to their margins. Super Bowl LX ended with Kenneth Walker III holding the Lombardi Trophy and an entire futures market re-educating itself. 

From Kansas City’s implosion to Philadelphia forgetting how to get the ball in the end zone, 2025 proved one thing— preseason futures markets are built on narrative, and narratives are fragile. Six months before the 2026 season kicks off, franchises are sitting at prices that feel like the market still hasn’t recovered from last season’s hangover. But which of them carries a genuine Super Bowl upside that their implied probabilities don’t come close to reflecting? Let’s take a look. 

Dallas Cowboys

Let’s start with the most compelling story on this board. The Dallas Cowboys finished 7-9-1 last season — no playoffs for the second straight year — while fielding an offense that led the entire NFL in passing yards per game. Dak Prescott threw into the void while the defense allowed points as if it were running a charity. Dead last. In the entire league. In points allowed. That’s like a Ferrari with bicycle tires welded to the axle, driving Dak’s legitimate MVP-caliber season straight off a cliff.

But there is an asterisk. There can be no denying that their putrid defense did improve following the trade deadline addition of Quinnen Williams and DeMarvion Overshown’s return from injury. They have strengthened even further in the offseason. 

Rashan Gary arrives from Green Bay with a 2027 fourth rounder heading in the opposite direction, joining Williams and Kenny Clark on a defensive front that suddenly has real pass rush juice. Javonte Williams (1,201 yards in 2025) signed a three-year deal to finally give Dallas a ground game. George Pickens got the franchise tag at $29 million, pairing him with CeeDee Lamb in arguably the most dangerous receiving duo in the NFC. Suddenly, the future at Jerry World looks bright. 

Here’s the edge: online betting sites still aren’t convinced. The latest online sports betting at Bovada odds list the Cowboys at +3000, implying just a 3.2% Super Bowl probability on a team with an elite quarterback, a restructured superstar receiver, and a rebuilt defensive front. The likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans are both considered more likely champions. America’s favorite fade is starting to look more like America’s most undervalued Super Bowl ticket.

Cincinnati Bengals

When Joe Burrow was fit and healthy in 2025, Cincinnati went 5-3. When he didn’t, the Bengals picked up just one win against eight defeats. The question then is simple: Can Joey B remain fit and firing for a full season? 

The former Heisman winner has managed just three fully fit seasons since being drafted first overall back in 2020. In the first of them, he led Cincy to its first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years. The second saw them reach the AFC Championship game, losing a thriller to Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs at Arrowhead. The third? Burrow threw for a league-leading career-best 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns, despite his side missing the playoffs at 9-8. 

That’s the brutal arithmetic staring punters in the face at +3000. If Burrow’s fit, the Bengals should be +1800 or less. If he’s on the IR all season, you can chalk them up at a million-to-one. It doesn’t matter. He’s Mr. Cincinnati. And without him, there is no hope. 

Heading into 2026, Trey Hendrickson is gone — 57 sacks across five seasons just walked out the door after Cincinnati declined to use the franchise tag. That hurts. Cam Taylor-Britt gone. This is a roster with real holes. But Boye Mafe, fresh off a Super Bowl ring with Seattle, arrives on a three-year, $60 million deal and brings legitimate pass rush credibility to a defense that desperately needs it. 

Is Burrow’s health the key? Obviously — and that’s what makes this the most fascinating bet on the entire board. At +3000, bettors are essentially laying premium odds on one man’s availability. That’s terrifying and electric simultaneously. Because a healthy Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase is a top three quarterback-receiver partnership in football, full stop. The market is paying you to bet he stays upright. Is that terrifying? Yes. Is it the most exciting value play on the board? Also yes.

Indianapolis Colts

The Daniel Jones two-year, $88 million extension — $50 million guaranteed in year one — is the most underappreciated signal on this entire futures board. Organizations don’t hand out $88 million to quarterbacks they don’t believe in, especially when those quarterbacks are recovering from torn Achilles injuries. Indiana Jones hit his three-month rehab milestone, got cleared by team doctors, and the deal followed immediately. The Colts examined him under a medical microscope and said, “he’s our guy.” 

Now load the roster around him: Alec Pierce locked up on a four-year, $116 million max deal as the passing game cornerstone. Arden Key signed to stabilize the edge rush. The Zaire Franklin trade brought in DT Colby Wooden for defensive line help. This is a franchise building infrastructure around a quarterback with a legitimate upside ceiling — and the market still hasn’t fully priced the extension as organizational conviction.

+6500 at Bovada implies less than 1.5% Super Bowl probability. For a team that went 8-1 to begin last season before its quarterback was hurt, backed by a front office that just committed $88 million in the same breath as his Achilles clearance? That might be the steal of the entire board. Year 2 of the Jones era, fully healthy, fully committed. The Colts are betting everything on a bounce-back. Bettors should consider doing the same.